US Sector scan - 4 August 2018

Scanned the US sectors briefly and here are some observations...

XLK, the technology sector ETF, had been rocketing for months and appeared to be slowing down. Being at risk of breaking down a trend line, it actually bounced off the support and closed at a new high. All these despite the volatility from release of the earnings reports, and to close at an all time high. Appears to have some legs left on this rally, albeit cautious about it. Expect it to surprise.

XLF, the financial sector ETF, recently broke out of a triangle and maintained for a second week. Albeit a bit of a stall, this sector looks bullish.

XLE, the energy sector ETF, is still in a triangle looking a little tired based on the MACD.

XLB, the materials sector ETF, is in an up channel and is looking to break out of a trend line. Possible to be patient as the trend has yet to be decided.

XLI, the industrial sector ETF, just turned bullish on the MACD, but has yet to break out of the box it is currently in. A slight recent higher high indicates some potential in the weeks to come.

Thus far, the above sector ETFs appear to be supporting the bullish rally. These sectors need to be working in coordination to indicate that the economy on a broad scale is improving.

There are opportunities observed with the other sectors with recent highs and bullish MACDs. While volatility may set in for the short term, it appears that the overall direction is likely to be UP.

Charts are from Tradingview.

A tale of three markets - Singapore (EWS), China (FXI) and India (INDY)

It has been 5 years since my last post, and about time too... this post comes from the encouragement of a buddy who is also my co-author in this blog.

First up, let’s take a look at home... using the SG ETF, ticker EWS, weekly chart shows the state of the Singapore market.

Since May, SG market began to deviate drastically from the US market (SPX overlay as y.ellow line). This deviation became stronger and is signaling something rather ominous, in my humble opinion. EWS went below its 55EMA, and MACD looks bearish. There is more downside to come as the next support is at the bottom of the range (grey box area), which is almost another 10% down from current levels. In some ways, it appears that this is possibly exerbated by an overall institutional outflow of funds from the SG market.

If that is the case, where are the funds going to? Or are funds moving out of Asia per se?

Looking at the China ETF, ticker FXI, weekly chart...

Similarly, the FXI deviated from its correlation with  SPX in May and fell significantly. Technically devastated, there appears to be a lower target in sight for the breakdown of the uptrend line, marked out by the red oval. The target is a good -7% from the current levels. This deviation is most likely due to the expectations of a trade war risk, with China expected to be a larger loser in the end, and China returning slower economic numbers of late.

One star caught my eye of late, and that is the mystical India market ETF, ticker INDY...

Although deviating off its correlation from SPX in May, there was a change in July and against many technical odds, the India market found fresh life to turn its MACD positive, breakout of resistances and commit with a recent push forward. There should be more in this breakout, much more. India’s market is one to watch as it appears to be trending now...

Charts are from TradingView.

Time again for a tired bull to rest - 29 Aug 2013

It's been a long time... And now, I am making special effort to get this out as I think it is an important point. The S&P500 futures looked technically topped, Very obivously in the daily chart, and seemingly supported but he weekly chart. The daily chart of /ES has a trend break pattern, which over the rest of this week closes below 1630, it is an obvious confirmation. Have had so many sell signals in the weekly and daily chart. Currently, the /ES is oversold and a slight bounce isn't surprising. Will be expecting more downside later this week. The VIX is correlating the S&P500 downside as well, having technically bullish setups. Looks like it is time to have a turn again.

Last candle standing... 4 July 2013

Looks like a top is forming...

The weekly /ES chart already has a SELL signal.
On the daily /ES chart, 1565 on /ES appears crucial to hold, after one or two more up days in the rollover area.

Right now, new worthy market tuggings are China, Portugal and coming back again, Greece...


The MadScientist

4 July 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

Expecting 1522 end

Just for fun... A quick look and seems like the third test of support may have just broken it.
breaking for sure signals another tanker this afternoon... Target 1522 on /ES.

Let's see how it pans out...

All that glitters is not gold... - 15 April 2013

Ouch...

Look at the Gold futures MONTHLY chart.

Over the past 3 years, many have asked me about the 24% returns in gold investment schemes available. My reply always had been that it is a 100% risk for promised returns that may not exist if the company goes under, or worse, when gold price drops suddenly and demand is virtually zero.

Looking at the chart for the past few days of gold price drop, and today's price action, I feel for those who were in those schemes. Watch what happens now that Gold price dropped so drastically in a short span of time.

Only advice left is:
The sooner we learn from our mistakes, the lesser the pain will be.
Recognise the wise man who looks like a fool and the fool who looks like the wise man.

Good luck!

The MadScientist

Made in Japan - 6 April 2013

 I'm in a very Japanese mood now... yes, I am leaving for Tokyo, Japan next week. Guess what happens when I am away? It was previously mentioned in another post.

In any case, this posting comes at a time when signals are appearing.

For ES weekly chart, it is a mature rally and again see signs of tired euphoria on the back of lower volumes. The daily chart has a SELL signal from yesterday and bearish divergence is clear in the MACD. Am beginning to wonder if April 2013 is even going to be a buligh month at all or not...

The VIX chart is not about to breakout but is clearly consolidating. I am expecting a break out just around the corner (when I am not looking, as I am away).

Interestingly, TLT iShares long term bond fund price has had major BUY signals and really popped up this week. Is this an early indicator? Perhaps so and one wonders what gives here...

Next week may be more down than what we would like to think.
Watch that corner!


The MadScientist
6 April 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

It's just getting interesting

I'd like to reference an article in Marketwatch.com ( http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rise-sp-nears-all-time-closing-high-2013-03-25?dist=lcountdown )

It's just starting to look really interesting now... Seems like there is thin ice all around.

Thread carefully!

The First of More? - 18 March 2013

This shock really came as a surprise to many... and Asian markets are reacting.
Expect the Western markets to do so as well later this evening as the futures and FX markets are undergoing volatility while the Western world sleeps.
/ES S&P 500 futures gapped down and is 1.18% lower. Nothing major but it could be the start of something to watch for this week.
Expect some pent up fear to project into the markets particularly after a good run in recent weeks.

See http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-analysts-are-saying-about-cyprus-tax-shock-2013-03-17

This may be the first of a few more to come...


The MadScientist


18th March 2013
Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform

On borrowed time - 13 March 2013

The S&P500 turned bullished earlier this week.
That perhaps sparked a couple of friends to start asking for opinions for how this market is going to move for the rest of this year, and if they should join in to ride the trend.

This analysis is for you all...

SPX (S&P500 Index)

The Monthly chart on the left shows a 3rd wave in a 3rd wave (for those who are into Elliot Wave theories). Even if you are not into Elliot Waves, what this indicates is simply that the trend is t-r-end (Turning Round the End). It is a mature trend in a monthly chart, which means that the technical outlook here is longer term (in months). The MACD is flashing that this trend is mature. And current prices are near the mania upper band. Notice how the previous four times over the last 3 years has a pullback happen when price is near or at mania?  The count leaves only 1-4 more bullish candles, and I suspect perhaps we would see two more bullish months at the most, and may hit the last 2007 high resistance level or just fail it.
Therefore, while it seems bullishly trending, it's a bit late into the party IMHO.

The Weekly chart on the right shows it is still a bullish tone, but the prices are at mania levels. There is no Sell signal yet, but you can see how far off we are from the Buy signals. Nonetheless, it's still bullish - at least for now.

The Daily chart above (right panel) shows the Volumes (from ES futures) and this last rally has drooping volumes. Again, I'd say it is undeniably bullish for now, but pretty much just about there and I'm looking for the turnaround soon.

The MadScientist

13th March 2013

Note: ALL material posted here is from my personal opinion, and my opinion may differ or change without notice. These do NOT constitute as solicitation, investment nor financial advice. By reading the materials presented here, Readers acknowledge the awareness that the materials are intended for educational purposes only. For investment(s) advice, related decisions and/or actions pertaining to investments, always consult your own qualified financial advisors, brokers, etc.

Charts are from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim platform